This story at a glance…

1. This year’s results might be fast like 2016—or slow like 2020.

2. Early signals will come from Georgia and North Carolina.

3. Mail-in vote processing could be faster in some states.

4. A close race might mean days of waiting for the final call.

When Will We Know the Next President?

As Election Day 2024 approaches, Americans are eager to know when the presidential race will be called. Some expect results by the morning after, like in 2016, while others remember the drawn-out wait in 2020 when the winner was declared days later. This year, a mix of factors could make either scenario possible, depending on how close the race is and how quickly key battleground states finalize their counts.  

 Lessons from the 2020 Election  
The 2020 election was a turning point in how America experienced election night. The effects of COVID-19 brought a surge in mail-in voting, leaving seven critical states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — uncalled by the next morning. Michigan and Wisconsin were called the following day, but the overall result remained unclear until Saturday, when Pennsylvania was called for Biden. This delay was due to the time-intensive process of counting an unprecedented number of mail-in ballots.  

Vote counts took longer because some states counted in-person votes before mail-in ballots, while others did the reverse. This process created what is known as “mirages,” where early counts leaned heavily toward one party but shifted as more ballots were processed. 

What to Expect in 2024  
This year, some states have adjusted policies to allow election workers to process mail-in ballots before Election Day, which could speed up reporting times. Michigan is one such state, aiming to reduce delays by handling some of the processing upfront. Additionally, mail-in voting now attracts a broader political mix, as Republicans, who previously favored in-person voting, have embraced early and mail voting to a greater extent.  

Still, the impact of these changes will vary. In states where rules have not changed, election workers will still begin processing mail-in ballots only after polls close, and partisan patterns in voting could still create some “mirages.” The final call could hinge on the gap between the two candidates. A decisive lead in early returns might point to a quicker result, while a close race would mean a longer wait as each state counts its ballots.  

When Could Results Be Called? 
Key states like Georgia and North Carolina will close their polls shortly after 7 p.m. Eastern. If early numbers in these states lean clearly toward one candidate, it could signal a quicker night. However, suppose results are closer or former President Trump performs strongly in Southern battlegrounds. In that case, it may come down to the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where polls close later and counting may take longer.  

Polls in battleground states close between 7 and 10 p.m. Eastern, but a clear picture could take longer to emerge if the vote remains close. If either candidate outperforms current projections, the race may be decided sooner, but the expectation is for a careful and potentially lengthy count to ensure each vote is tallied accurately.  

Reflection 
As we await these results, we are reminded of the value of patience and the importance of trust. Philippians 4:6-7 encourages us, “Do not be anxious about anything….” In a world eager for immediate answers, we can take a moment to pray for peace and patience, knowing God’s timing is perfect. Let us trust the process and know that, ultimately, God holds each outcome in His hands.