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Fact-Checking the Vice-Presidential Debate: Vance vs. Walz

Clarifying the Claims on Economy, Immigration, and Energy Policies During the Debate

This story at a glance…

  1.  Vance and Walz debated key issues like energy, immigration, and the economy.

  2. Both made factual errors, with Vance exaggerating claims about heating costs and Walz misrepresenting his presence in China during Tiananmen Square.

  3. Vance overstated housing cost increases and U.S. environmental performance.

  4. Despite the respectful tone, both candidates missed the mark on several key facts.

Fact-Checking the Vice-Presidential Debate: Vance vs. Walz

Vice-presidential candidates JD Vance and Tim Walz engaged in their first and only debate on Tuesday night, tackling issues ranging from the economy and immigration to foreign policy and abortion. While the debate was noted for its civility, both candidates made several claims that did not entirely align with the facts. Below are some of the most significant claims made during the debate and a breakdown of their accuracy, based on analysis from NBC News and Reuters.

Walz’s Tiananmen Square Comments
Tim Walz was questioned about his earlier claims regarding the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. He acknowledged during the debate that he misspoke, clarifying that he was in Hong Kong later that summer, not during the massacre. However, previous reports placed Walz in Nebraska at said time, making his original statement inaccurate.

U.S. Energy Production: Walz’s Claim
Walz stated that the U.S. is producing more natural gas and oil than ever before. This claim is mostly true. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. has been the leading producer of crude oil for six consecutive years, producing an average of 12.9 million barrels per day in 2023. Similarly, natural gas production reached a record high in late 2023. However, forecasts indicate a slight decline in natural gas production for 2024, marking the first decrease since 2020.

Vance on Heating Costs and Energy Policies
JD Vance argued that rising heating costs are a result of energy policies under Vice President Kamala Harris. This claim is mostly false. Rising heating and cooling costs are primarily due to extreme weather rather than specific energy policies. U.S. oil production remains strong, and renewable energy sources are becoming cheaper, although these advancements have not significantly reduced consumer energy costs.

Job Creation Under the Inflation Reduction Act
Walz claimed that the Inflation Reduction Act has created 200,000 jobs across the U.S. This claim requires context. Some studies suggest that the Act has contributed to around 171,000 clean energy jobs in its first year, though the overall number of jobs directly created by the Act is difficult to quantify. The full economic impact of the law is still emerging.

Trump’s Tax Payments: Walz’s Claim
Walz asserted that Donald Trump did not pay federal taxes in 10 of the last 15 years, including his last year as president. This is mostly accurate. A New York Times investigation found that Trump paid no income taxes in 10 of those years due to significant business losses. In the years he did pay, the amounts were minimal, with just $750 paid in 2016 and 2017. Trump has denied these findings, but tax documents released by Congress in 2022 confirm this pattern.

Vance’s Clean Economy Claim
JD Vance argued that the U.S. has the cleanest economy in the world in terms of carbon emissions per unit of economic output. This claim is false. The U.S. ranks 34th in environmental performance according to Yale’s Environmental Performance Index and 19th in the transition to clean energy according to the World Economic Forum. The U.S. produces more carbon emissions per capita than many other developed nations, including Ireland, Norway, and Spain.

Housing Costs Under the Biden Administration
Vance declared that housing costs have risen by 60% during the Biden administration. This is an exaggeration. Housing prices have indeed increased, but the rise is closer to 32.6% since 2019, with rental prices increasing by about 19%. While the housing market has seen significant growth, Vance’s figure overstates the actual increase.

Trump and Rising Take-Home Pay
Vance claimed that Donald Trump’s policies led to the highest take-home pay in a generation. This requires context. While income levels did rise during Trump’s administration, take-home pay has been increasing steadily for nearly 30 years. Trump’s policies did contribute to a notable increase in 2019, but this was part of a broader trend in rising wages over time.

Immigration and Crime: Vance’s Claim
Vance argued that one million migrants who crossed the U.S. border illegally have committed additional crimes. This is false. Data from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) shows that about 662,000 non-citizens have pending charges or convictions, a figure that includes cases spanning multiple decades. Among migrants who arrived during the Biden administration, about 115,000 have been flagged for criminal backgrounds.

Iran and Unfrozen Assets
Vance said that the U.S. gave Iran over $100 billion in unfrozen assets. This is misleading. In reality, the Obama administration unfroze $50 billion as part of the 2015 nuclear deal, and the Biden administration released $6 billion in 2023 as part of a prisoner exchange. The total amount of unfrozen assets is $56 billion, not $100 billion.

Minnesota’s Child Tax Credit and Poverty Reduction
Walz highlighted Minnesota’s child tax credit, claiming it reduced childhood poverty by one-third. While this claim is based on projections from Columbia University, no study has yet confirmed this figure. The Minnesota Department of Revenue reported that over $545 million was distributed to 215,000 families between 2023 and 2024, but the actual impact on poverty levels remains under review.

Healthcare in Minnesota: A National Leader?
Walz asserted that Minnesota ranks first in the nation for healthcare. This depends on the source. WalletHub ranked Minnesota as the top state for healthcare in 2024, citing low costs and high-quality public hospital systems. However, other rankings use different metrics, with some placing Minnesota lower. Forbes, for example, also ranks Minnesota highly, but some other analyses produce different results.

Inflation Rates in Minneapolis
Walz declared that Minneapolis has experienced the lowest inflation rates in the country. This is mostly true for specific periods. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics found that Minneapolis-Saint Paul had the lowest inflation rates in the U.S. in May and July of 2023, as well as in March 2024.

Trump’s Trade Deficit with China
Walz accused Trump of creating the largest trade deficit in U.S. history with China. This is accurate. During Trump’s second year in office, the U.S. trade deficit with China reached a record high of $419.2 billion, up 11.6% from the previous year. This occurred despite tariffs imposed by Trump on Chinese goods and retaliatory measures by China, making the trade gap a central issue in U.S.-China relations during his presidency.

Reflection
This debate underscores the importance of discerning truth in political discourse. Proverbs 12:22 reminds us that "the Lord detests lying lips, but he delights in people who are trustworthy." As Christians, we’re called to seek truth in all areas of life, including leadership. By prioritizing honesty and accuracy, we contribute to a society that values integrity, fostering trust and mutual respect. As the debate showed, truth is often layered and requires careful consideration, but it is essential for the common good.

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